More Proof that Facebook is a Bubble

(Note: this is largely a summary of Social Media Ad Revenues Will Reach $8.3 Billion by 2015 by Erik Sass at MediaPost)

In a post yesterday, Erik Sass noted that BIA/Kelsey predicted that the Social Media ad spending - a decent proxy for Facebook revenue, as they seem to be earning almost all of it - will quadruple from ~$2Bn/yr to $8.3Bn/yr.  This is a healthy 32% growth rate, "reminiscent of the first surge of Internet advertising in its glory years from 1997-2000 and then again from 2003-2008."

Image via Wikipedia


Facebook, as recently as January, was claiming run rates of $2Bn annually while selling through Goldman Sachs at ~$50Bn EV, or 25x revenue.  That's already quite bubblish, but check this out.  On Monday, the WSJ reported an implied IPO valuation of $100Bn for Facebook assuming a Spring 2012 IPO.  Assuming little cash or debt on the books (i.e. Market Cap approximates EV), and assuming that Facebook gets 100% of social media ad spend, this implies ratio of 12x for 2012 EV to 2015 revenue.  That doesn't give Facebook IPO investors very far (anywhere?) to go over those 3-4 years and get any returns.  That's practically the definition of a bubble - when future success is already baked into current prices - and then some!

Where Are the Women in Tech ... Karaoke?

Folks who know me know that I like women, tech, and business, and perhaps with some connection between the topics spend more than statistically average thinking about why there are not more women in tech and business and discussing said topic w/ friends and associates.

Thus, when I read MG Siegler's post entitled There Will Be Karaoke: SXSW RVIP Goes East Coast Vs. West Coast Vs. Press Vs. Investors, I couldn't help notice that among seven singers representing four constituencies, that it was all dudes.

Now I realize that most of the reasons for the lack of women in tech and business are systemic (dearth of women in engineering, MBA programs, finance, senior executive positions across the Fortune 500, etc. etc.), and also that there is a lot of backlash that asking about the number of women in tech is the wrong question.

But seriously folks.  This is karaoke.  Can anyone seriously say anything in defense of a karaoke event being all dudes?  

How about looking at it from another perspective: when was the last time you went to a karaoke event that was all dudes, anywhere? (other than a fraternity or one of those fraternity-equivalent-finals-club-thingies in The Social Network)  Talk about low-hanging fruit for having women visibly involved on the tech scene (and for the haters, I'm hardly suggesting that karaoke should be a woman's place or goal in tech, but if you look at who the other participants are you'll see this is hardly about fluff)

Besides the sheer mind-numbing obviousness of it from a PR point of view (at least to me), let's look at the self-interest involved.  I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that maybe, juuust maybe, a guy and a girl together could sing a broader range of songs than two guys alone, and that maybe, just maaaybe, that would be an advantage in a karaoke competition?  To paraphrase MG Siegler's "There Will Be Karaoke" title, where there is karaoke, There Will Be Celine Dion.

Twitter and the Danger of Listening Out of Context

You know that guy that overhears a line of your conversation and jumps in, with the completely wrong context?  With Twitter we are all That Guy - or least the barrier to being That Guy is dropped waaaay lower.

I was just reviewing @christinacaci's tweetstream to decide whether to follow her (I did), when I read this one:

@arainert I also saw a few parks trending on Foursquare this afternoon, which seems a solid indication of springtime.

1 Mar via web Favorite Retweet Reply

from Union Square, New York

I was about to give her shit a la "you know you're in a social media bubble when you use Foursquare to tell the weather"- b/c seriously, who uses Foursquare to tell the weather? b/c I was feeling snarky after finding a time to catch up with her had involved more reschedules than a NY airport in a Xmas blizzard, although in her defense I've been guilty for a couple of the reschedules and she's been incredibly gracious about it - until I saw the context of the conversation and noted that the person she was talking to was a) the head of product at Foursquare, and b) had just made a comment ending in "Screw you Winter!"  Suddenly her tweet made so much more sense, was so much more nuanced than originally perceived to be, and wiped away all snarkiness to the point I felt bad about even the mildly-ribbing tweet I'd made about 4Sq having a new use case - telling the weather.

11:26PM, March 2, 2010.  Note to self: you're already pretty good at being That Guy; be double careful on Twitter!

A Theory of Saudi Fear of Egyptian Democracy

I was discussing with a friend recently why the Saudis are so worried about Mubarak's fall that they would offer to pay Egypt's aid if the US cuts it off.  I doubt they are worried about Saudis taking to the streets - Saudi Arabia is not only a kingdom, as opposed to a dictatorship pretending to be a democratic republic - the country is actually named after the ruling family, the House of Saud.

Wael Ghonim, Google, and the Greatest Social Media Campaign in History

The recent revelation that Wael Ghonim - the Google exec who was detained by the Mubarak regime and was missing from January 27 until today - was the administrator of the We Are All Khalid Said website and facebook page that declared Jan 25 to be the Egyptian day of protest makes for a plot worthy of Hollywood, or perhaps a novel by Naguib Mahfouz were he still alive:

Following the fatal and unpunished beating of a small-time businessman in Alexandria at the hands of the police after he "posted a video on the Internet of officers sharing the spoils from a drug bust among themselves" (scroll down in this link for the full story), an anonymous hacker decides to seek revenge.  Known only as El Shaheed - the martyr - he creates a page that galvanizes an entire nation against a ruthless dictator who has held power and destroyed opposition for nearly 30 years.  In a country threatened by sectarian violence and a populace so disenfranchised the trash in the street becomes a symbol of its decay, a day of protest is declared that hardly dares to hope (dream?) that perhaps it will be the one to finally bring this despot down when so many have failed before.  Using the latest in communications technology and the simplest handmade signs, a fierce unity is created between Christians and Muslims, Secularists and Religious, Rich and Poor, all rising up to take the revolution to the streets - even sweeping them in their wake(!) - while the world waits with baited breath to learn the outcome of the standoff between the people and their universally despised autocratic leader.  Men on horse and camel back, riot police, and fighter jets attempt to intimidate the people, but they will not back down.  Finally, the government cuts off the internet - but too late. El Shaheed goes quiet, but his role is done.  Older forms of social media - also known as word of mouth - take over.  Unable to ascertain his identity, a Newseek reporter writes:

"Fires still burned on the streets of the capital; in their flickering light, people huddled together to talk openly about revolution for the first time in many years. ... Perhaps somewhere in the crowds was El Shaheeed."

But alas our hero was nowhere to be found, and the drama builds.  

Mirror for Sandmonkey - Egypt Right Now!

Sandmonkey is back online; you can read his blog (highly recommended) here: http://www.sandmonkey.org/

I have saved my own copy of the post which he wrote before he was arrested and beaten, which at the time of my writing this is at the top of his blog (link above) or direct link here: http://www.sandmonkey.org/2011/02/03/egypt-right-now/
 

Why I Support the Egyptian People’s Revolution as an Israeli and a Jew - and Why You Should Too

The West, and Israelis and Jews in particular, seem to have come to the foregone conclusion that if Mubarak leaves power (probably better said as when Mubarak leaves), Egypt will be overrun by a barbaric horde of Jew-hating, warmongering  Islamists whose first action in power will be to rip up all peace agreements and send their entire military to conquer Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.  I understand their anxiety; Egypt has a powerful army and the idea of fighting an all-out war on the southern front - something we haven't had to do since 1973 - is scary.  I however am much more optimistic and support the Egyptian people unequivocally, as an American, an Israeli, and a Jew, despite my first concern always being for the welfare of Israel and the Jewish people.  I would suggest that other Israelis and Jews do the same thing, or at a minimum be supportive of the Egyptian people while watching carefully to see what kind of government emerges post-Mubarak.